Study on Project Duration Risk Based on Unascertained-PERT

When the computation of project duration, the unascertained factor of project duration was leave out in traditional PERT network. And the computing result is a determined value. The determined result of project duration can not include the complete information, and usually can not match the project fact. In this paper, the uncertainty of project network is studied by unascertained number algorithm. And the project duration is contract with the credence. Firstly, the uncertainty of project duration is studied in the PERT network. Secondly, the unascertained number of the project duration in the network is determined by using the unascertained algorithm. Thirdly, both the finished credence and the accumulate credence can be worked out by the unascertained algorithm in the unascertained finish time of the network planning. Comparing with traditional PERT, the unascertained PERT is more scientific in the project practice. Finally, the availability and scientific of the unascertained PERT were proved by a case study.