Pasture recovery, emissions, and the Brazilian Paris agreement commitments

This paper evaluates the socioeconomic, land use change, and greenhouse gases emissions impacts of degraded pastures recovery (DPR) in Brazil, assessing the contribution to the Brazilian Paris Agreement commitments. We used a Computable General Equilibrium model, TERM-BR15, in a scenario simulation for the period 2015-2035. The simulation includes DPR shocks of productivity, investments, and Soil Organic Carbon (SOC) fixation. We used two carbon accounting methods for the impacts on emissions, the original method of Brazil's emissions inventory, which does not consider SOC, and the alternative method, which includes SOC fixation. Results show a 0.56% growth in Gross Domestic Product and 0.73% in real household consumption relative to the 2035 baseline. There would be a social return of R$80.5 billion (in 2023 prices), representing R$8.27 for every real invested. Less developed and more dependent on cattle ranching regions would benefit the most. Cattle ranching would expand production using less area, resulting in a land-saving effect of 1.15 million hectares in 2035. GHG emissions would increase by 7.83% in the original accounting method, resulting from herd and economic growth. In the alternative method, 0.23% mitigation would occur, showing that SOC fixation can more than offset the economic activity growth. Independently of the GHG accounting method Brazil would achieve the 2025 mitigation target of 37% relative to 2005 but would not meet the 50% mitigation target of 2030. SOC fixation could contribute up to 5.7% of the 2030 mitigation target. Our results show that DPR is a sustainable production system that increases economic growth, avoids deforestation, and could mitigate GHG emissions. We provide information on regional impacts suitable for better decision-making for pasture restoration incentives in Brazil.