Adaptation of selected aspects of deterministic chaos for long-term forecasts of peak power demand for Poland

被引：1

作者：

Poplawski, Tomasz ^{[1
]}

Calus, Dariusz ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Politech Czestochowska, Wydzial Elekt, Inst Elektroenergetyki, Al Armii Krajowej 17, PL-42200 Czestochowa, Poland

来源：

PRZEGLAD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY | 2018年 / 94卷 / 12期

关键词：

electrical power engineering; peak power demand; long-term forecast; deterministic chaos theory;

D O I：

10.15199/48.2018.12.18

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

The paper presents an innovative technique of constructing long-term forecasts of peak power demand and gross electrical energy demand for an entire country on the example of Poland. The method is based on the Canonical Distribution of the Vector of Random Variables Model (CDVRM). The study also focuses on the problem of choosing the optimum explanatory variables scenarios for forecasting models. The concept of using elements of the deterministic chaos theory based on Pregogine's logistic equation has also been described. The ideas discussed have been verified in the process of making long-term forecasts for Poland up to the year 2040.

引用

页码：79 / 85

页数：7

共 50 条

[41] ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL ASPECTS OF LONG-TERM OPERATION OF THE LONGEST ROAD BRIDGE IN POLAND - OF TEMPORARY STRUCTURE
Mistewicz, Marek
ROADS AND BRIDGES-DROGI I MOSTY, 2016, 15 (03): : 231 - 244
[42] Long-term electric peak load forecasting for power system planning: A comparative study
Soliman, SA
Alammari, RA
El-Hawary, ME
Temraz, HK
ARABIAN JOURNAL FOR SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 2004, 29 (1B) : 85 - 94
[43] Shifts in broadband power and alpha peak frequency observed during long-term isolation
Weber, Jan
Klein, Timo
Abeln, Vera
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2020, 10 (01)
[44] THE USE OF PRIGOGINE'S MODEL FOR LONG-TERM PEAK PREDICTION IN THE POLISH POWER SYSTEM
Szelag, Piotr
Poplawski, Tomasz
RYNEK ENERGII, 2010, (01): : 32 - 36
[45] Shifts in broadband power and alpha peak frequency observed during long-term isolation
Jan Weber
Timo Klein
Vera Abeln
Scientific Reports, 10
[46] Islet neogenesis:: an apparent key component of long-term pancreas adaptation to increased insulin demand
Del Zotto, H
Borelli, MI
Flores, L
García, ME
Dumm, CLG
Chicco, A
Lombardo, YB
Gagliardino, JJ
JOURNAL OF ENDOCRINOLOGY, 2004, 183 (02) : 321 - 330
[47] Model of Forecasting Travel Demand of Cars That Operate on The Urban Road in Peak-hour in The Long-term
Wang Quandeng
2010 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND SAFETY ENGINEERING (MSSE 2010), VOLS I AND II, 2010, : 209 - 211
[48] Adequacy aware long-term energy-system optimization models considering stochastic peak demand
Mertens, Tim
Bruninx, Kenneth
Duerinck, Jan
Delarue, Erik
ADVANCES IN APPLIED ENERGY, 2021, 4
[49] Advantages of Deterministic Optimization in Long-Term Hydrothermal Scheduling of Large-Scale Power Systems
Zambelli, Monica De Souza
Martins, Leonardo S. A.
Soares Filho, Secundino
2013 IEEE POWER AND ENERGY SOCIETY GENERAL MEETING (PES), 2013,
[50] Long-Term Enhancement of the Operational Security of the Kosovo Power System by Applying the Augmented Deterministic Methodology
Pula, Gazmend
Kabashi, Gazmend
Kadriu, Kadri
Sadiku, Valon
2015 SCIENCE AND INFORMATION CONFERENCE (SAI), 2015, : 1266 - 1271

← 1 2 3 4 5 →