Adaptation of selected aspects of deterministic chaos for long-term forecasts of peak power demand for Poland

被引：1

作者：

Poplawski, Tomasz ^{[1
]}

Calus, Dariusz ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Politech Czestochowska, Wydzial Elekt, Inst Elektroenergetyki, Al Armii Krajowej 17, PL-42200 Czestochowa, Poland

来源：

PRZEGLAD ELEKTROTECHNICZNY | 2018年 / 94卷 / 12期

关键词：

electrical power engineering; peak power demand; long-term forecast; deterministic chaos theory;

D O I：

10.15199/48.2018.12.18

中图分类号：

TM [电工技术]; TN [电子技术、通信技术];

学科分类号：

0808 ; 0809 ;

摘要：

The paper presents an innovative technique of constructing long-term forecasts of peak power demand and gross electrical energy demand for an entire country on the example of Poland. The method is based on the Canonical Distribution of the Vector of Random Variables Model (CDVRM). The study also focuses on the problem of choosing the optimum explanatory variables scenarios for forecasting models. The concept of using elements of the deterministic chaos theory based on Pregogine's logistic equation has also been described. The ideas discussed have been verified in the process of making long-term forecasts for Poland up to the year 2040.

引用

页码：79 / 85

页数：7

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