The purpose of this paper is to examine the behavior of real bilateral exchange rates for major currencies and test the hypothesis of real uncovered interest parity with risk premia, and forward looking expectations. It is plausible that the hypothesis of rational expectations cannot be rejected given the unit root nonstationarity of real exchange rates but it is not unlikely that unit root nonstationarity may be due to rational expectations in foreign exchange markets.
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Russian Acad Sci, St Petersburg Inst Informat & Automat, St Petersburg 199178, RussiaRussian Acad Sci, St Petersburg Inst Informat & Automat, St Petersburg 199178, Russia
Musaev, Alexander
Makshanov, Andrey
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Admiral Makarov State Univ Maritime & Inland Shipp, Dept Comp Syst & Comp Sci, St Petersburg 198035, RussiaRussian Acad Sci, St Petersburg Inst Informat & Automat, St Petersburg 199178, Russia
Makshanov, Andrey
Grigoriev, Dmitry
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St Petersburg State Univ, Ctr Econometr & Business Analyt CEBA, St Petersburg 199034, RussiaRussian Acad Sci, St Petersburg Inst Informat & Automat, St Petersburg 199178, Russia