Housing Affordability Crisis and Delayed Fertility: Evidence from the USA

This paper studies the relationship between homeownership and completed fertility. We hypothesize that homeownership unaffordability decreases completed fertility by delaying the start of childbearing, thus, increasing the mother's age at first birth. Applying a Cox Proportional Hazard model on the 2000 US Census and the 2015-2019 Panel Study of Income Dynamics, we show that renters delay childbearing relative to homeowners. Using the same methodology and the 2000 US Census, we find that renters in relatively unaffordable real estate markets delay the start of childbearing more than those in more affordable ones. Lastly, we use the 1990 US Census and an Ordinary Least-Squares regression, to show that women's age at first birth is negatively associated with completed fertility. These results provide evidence that the lack of affordable (owned) housing delays the start of childbearing which reduces completed fertility. Thus, even temporary housing unaffordability, especially difficulty to transition to homeownership, might have long-lasting effects on the age pyramid.