Housing market, social housing, and fertility: evidence from urban China

This study utilizes panel data from 283 Chinese cities between 2009 and 2017 and employs a fixed-effects model to analyze the effects of commercial housing prices and social housing supply on birth rates, considering the interaction between the housing market and social housing policies. The findings indicate that a 1% increase in housing prices results in a 0.063% decrease in the birth rate, while a 1% increase in social housing supply leads to a 0.075% increase in the birth rate. However, although increasing the supply of social housing can positively influence birth rates, its substitutability with commercial housing may reduce the availability of commercial properties, driving up housing prices and potentially lowering fertility rates. Therefore, an unlimited social housing supply policy may not effectively resolve the issue of low birth rates. To be more inclusive, local governments should adopt a demand-oriented social housing policy that addresses the diverse needs of families, rather than focusing solely on supply-side measures.HighlightsSocial housing supply in areas with lower housing prices positively affects birth rates.Social housing supply in areas with higher housing prices negatively affects birth rates.Among social housing types, economic and comfortable housing (ECH) has a greater impact on fertility rates than public rental housing (PRH).A demand-driven social housing supply policy is necessary for low-income households.