Does advertising spending really work? The intermediate role of analysts in the impact of advertising on firm value

Both managers and investors are increasingly concerned with the impact of advertising spending on shareholder returns. This study investigates the analyst-based processes by which advertising may create firm value. Using a large longitudinal dataset with 1,052 firms over 20 years, we find that firms decreasing from the top 20% to the bottom 20% of advertising spending group when compared to all industry competitors would experience a drop of abnormal return by 4.08% in 1 year and a cumulative total of 81.6% in 20 years. Also, analyst activities partially mediate the impact of advertising on firm return and risk. These findings indicate that analysts may act to externally validate the business logic underlying the advertising expense. The more analysts factor in firm advertising spending and reflect it in their earnings forecasts, the more likely the benefits of advertising are channeled into firm value. The results bridge research interests across marketing, accounting, and finance disciplines and help managers understand how product and financial markets are united. Main Street could better align with Wall Street via corporate disclosure of advertising spending to equity analysts.