Impact of agricultural modernization on agricultural carbon emissions in China: a study based on the spatial spillover effect

Taking the data of 30 provinces (excluding Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan regions and Tibet) at the provincial level from 2010 to 2019 as the research object, this paper analyzes the current situation and characteristics of China’s agricultural modernization and response to carbon emissions. Agricultural modernization is decomposed into production modernization, management modernization, and ecological modernization. This study uses the spatial Dobbin model to demonstrate the impact of agricultural modernization on carbon emissions and analyzes the impact of agricultural modernization on carbon emissions in the East. The direct effect and spatial spillover effect of the three western regions are to different degrees. The results show that agricultural carbon emissions are spatially dependent. The development of agricultural modernization and transportation of neighboring provinces and cities will have an impact on agricultural carbon emissions in this region. Therefore, under the background of rural revitalization and low-carbon agriculture, this paper further analyzes the impact of agricultural modernization on the spatial distribution of carbon emissions in the eastern, central, and western regions. Recommendations are proposed with a view to giving better play to the process of agricultural modernization.