Coupling Coordination and Spatiotemporal Dynamic Evolution between Agricultural Carbon Emissions and Agricultural Modernization in China 2010-2020

Modern agriculture contributes significantly to greenhouse gas emissions. How to reduce such emissions without sacrificing agricultural development is a common issue concerning most developing countries. In China, a rural revitalization strategy proposed in 2018 aims to achieve agricultural modernization by 2050, while reaching a carbon emission peak by 2030 and neutrality by 2060. However, China's progress towards these goals is largely unknown. This study evaluates the coupling coordination and spatiotemporal dynamic evolution between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural modernization in China from 2010 to 2020 through a joint employment of spatial autocorrelation and coupling coordination degree modeling. The results show that from 2010 to 2020, the agricultural modernization level increased from 0.155 to 0.272, and the agricultural carbon emission intensity decreased from 4.9 tons per 10 thousand CNY to 2.43 tons. Agricultural carbon emissions and the agricultural modernization level manifest significant spatially agglomerative patterns with noticeable discrepancies across different regions. Moreover, the coupling coordination degree between agricultural carbon emissions and agricultural modernization has increased every year, but disparities among provinces continued to widen. Specifically, coupling coordination in northern China is significantly higher than that in the south, and its spatial distribution exhibits a positive correlation and increasing levels of clustering. These results point to the continued need for sustainable agricultural development efforts, such as strengthening rural infrastructure and diffusing green technologies in achieving China's dual carbon emission and agricultural modernization goals. This study also examines the sustainable agricultural development issue from a new perspective, and the findings can provide policy references for sustainable agricultural development policies in China.