Judgemental forecasting support systems in tourism

被引:13
|
作者
Croce, Valeria [1 ]
Woeber, Karl W. [1 ]
机构
[1] MODUL Univ Vienna, Dept Tourism & Hospitality Management, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
关键词
collaborative forecasting; short-term predictions; judgemental biases; forecasting support system; tourism demand; DEMAND; INFORMATION; ACCURACY; MANAGEMENT;
D O I
10.5367/te.2011.0062
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
In an increasingly competitive industry, tourism managers are faced with the necessity of estimating future values of demand in the short term despite the limitations of scarcity, volatility and uncertainty. A convenient and flexible approach such as judgemental forecasting holds promise in addressing the major issues in the field of tourism demand forecasting. This paper presents an innovative approach, which uses the opportunities offered by decision support systems to tackle the main issues associated with judgemental forecasting. A forecasting system that supports collaborative short-term forecasting tasks among tourism managers is offered as a case example.
引用
收藏
页码:709 / 724
页数:16
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Forecasting tourism: a combined approach
    Chu, FL
    TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 1998, 19 (06) : 515 - 520
  • [42] Developing a Web-based collaborative forecasting platform to support tourism supply chain management
    Zhang, Xinyan
    Song, Haiyan
    2012 IEEE INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INDUSTRIAL ENGINEERING AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT (IEEM), 2012, : 1414 - 1418
  • [43] A Study on the Tourism Combining Demand Forecasting Models for the Tourism in Korea
    Son, H. G.
    Ha, M. H.
    Kim, S.
    KOREAN JOURNAL OF APPLIED STATISTICS, 2012, 25 (02) : 251 - 259
  • [44] KBS and macro-level systems: support of energy demand forecasting
    Hung, CQ
    Batanov, DN
    Lefevre, T
    COMPUTERS IN INDUSTRY, 1998, 37 (02) : 87 - 95
  • [45] Ecological Forecasting and Operational Information Systems Support Sustainable Ocean Management
    Sun, Chaojiao
    Hobday, Alistair J.
    Condie, Scott A.
    Baird, Mark E.
    Eveson, J. Paige
    Hartog, Jason R.
    Richardson, Anthony J.
    Steven, Andrew D. L.
    Wild-Allen, Karen
    Babcock, Russell C.
    Yang, Dezhou
    Yu, Rencheng
    Mongin, Mathieu
    FORECASTING, 2022, 4 (04): : 1051 - 1079
  • [46] Neural Networks in Accounting: Bridging Financial Forecasting and Decision Support Systems
    Artene, Alin Emanuel
    Domil, Aura Emanuela
    ELECTRONICS, 2025, 14 (05):
  • [47] DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEMS FOR THE FORECASTING TASK - DESIGN ISSUES AND CHALLENGES
    LAWRENCE, M
    OCONNOR, M
    BUSINESS PROCESS RE-ENGINEERING: INFORMATION SYSTEMS OPPORTUNITIES AND CHALLENGES, 1994, 54 : 367 - 376
  • [48] Analysing the potential of ChatGPT to support plant disease risk forecasting systems
    Calone, Roberta
    Raparelli, Elisabetta
    Bajocco, Sofia
    Rossi, Eugenio
    Crecco, Lorenzo
    Morelli, Danilo
    Bassi, Chiara
    Tiso, Rocchina
    Bugiani, Riccardo
    Pietrangeli, Fabio
    Cattaneo, Giovanna
    Nigro, Camilla
    Gerardi, Marco Secondo
    Bussotti, Simone
    Sanchioni, Angela
    Tognetti, Danilo
    Sandra, Mariangela
    De Lillo, Irene
    Framarin, Paolo
    Di Ferdinando, Sandra
    Bregaglio, Simone
    SMART AGRICULTURAL TECHNOLOGY, 2025, 10
  • [49] Forecasting systems reliability based on support vector regression with genetic algorithms
    Chen, Kuan-Yu
    RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY, 2007, 92 (04) : 423 - 432
  • [50] Bayesian models for tourism demand forecasting
    Wong, Kevin K. F.
    Song, Haiyan
    Chon, Kaye S.
    TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 2006, 27 (05) : 773 - 780