Judgemental forecasting support systems in tourism

被引:13
|
作者
Croce, Valeria [1 ]
Woeber, Karl W. [1 ]
机构
[1] MODUL Univ Vienna, Dept Tourism & Hospitality Management, A-1190 Vienna, Austria
关键词
collaborative forecasting; short-term predictions; judgemental biases; forecasting support system; tourism demand; DEMAND; INFORMATION; ACCURACY; MANAGEMENT;
D O I
10.5367/te.2011.0062
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
In an increasingly competitive industry, tourism managers are faced with the necessity of estimating future values of demand in the short term despite the limitations of scarcity, volatility and uncertainty. A convenient and flexible approach such as judgemental forecasting holds promise in addressing the major issues in the field of tourism demand forecasting. This paper presents an innovative approach, which uses the opportunities offered by decision support systems to tackle the main issues associated with judgemental forecasting. A forecasting system that supports collaborative short-term forecasting tasks among tourism managers is offered as a case example.
引用
收藏
页码:709 / 724
页数:16
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] FORECASTING OF TOURISM AND TRAVEL
    BARON, RRV
    ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH, 1985, 12 (04) : 650 - 651
  • [22] Tourism Forecasting and Marketing
    Mazanec, Josef A.
    TOURISM RECREATION RESEARCH, 2005, 30 (02) : 98 - 99
  • [23] Practical tourism forecasting
    Uysal, M
    ANNALS OF TOURISM RESEARCH, 1999, 26 (02) : 472 - 473
  • [24] Tourism forecasting: An introduction
    Song, Haiyan
    Hyndman, Rob J.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2011, 27 (03) : 817 - 821
  • [25] Practical tourism forecasting
    Hope, CA
    TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 1998, 19 (02) : 187 - 187
  • [26] The tourism forecasting competition
    Athanasopoulos, George
    Hyndman, Rob J.
    Song, Haiyan
    Wu, Doris C.
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2011, 27 (03) : 822 - 844
  • [27] Adaptive grey model (AGM) approach for judgemental forecasting in short-term manufacturing demand
    Mishra R.S.
    Kumar R.
    Dhingra S.
    Sengupta S.
    Sharma T.
    Gautam G.D.
    Materials Today: Proceedings, 2022, 56 : 3740 - 3746
  • [28] Forecasting support systems technologies-in-practice: A model of adoption and use for product forecasting
    Asimakopoulos, Stavros
    Dix, Alan
    INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF FORECASTING, 2013, 29 (02) : 322 - 336
  • [29] Information supply in tourism management by marketing decision support systems
    Wöber, KW
    TOURISM MANAGEMENT, 2003, 24 (03) : 241 - 255
  • [30] Scenario Forecasting for Global Tourism
    Wu, Doris Chenguang
    Cao, Zheng
    Wen, Long
    Song, Haiyan
    JOURNAL OF HOSPITALITY & TOURISM RESEARCH, 2021, 45 (01) : 28 - 51