Probabilistic prediction of peak flood discharges

被引：0

作者：

Lefebvre, M ^{[1
]}

Ribeiro, J ^{[1
]}

Rousselle, J ^{[1
]}

Seidou, O ^{[1
]}

Lauzon, N ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Ecole Polytech, Dept Math & Genie Ind, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada

来源：

APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, VOLS 1 AND 2 | 2003年

关键词：

D O I：

暂无

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

A probabilistic model for the prediction of flood discharges is presented. The objective is to make one-step-ahead predictions of river peak flood discharges. The model is based on a filtered Poisson process to represent the process of instantaneous river flows. An analytical expression is found for the conditionnal probability density of next flood discharge given the last flood discharge. A case study is also presented. The results obtained using two predictors based on the model are compared to those obtained using an order one autoregressive model.

引用

页码：867 / 871

页数：5

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