Probabilistic prediction of peak flood discharges

被引：0
|
作者：
Lefebvre, M [1 ]
Ribeiro, J [1 ]
Rousselle, J [1 ]
Seidou, O [1 ]
Lauzon, N [1 ]
机构：
[1] Ecole Polytech, Dept Math & Genie Ind, Montreal, PQ H3C 3A7, Canada
来源：
APPLICATIONS OF STATISTICS AND PROBABILITY IN CIVIL ENGINEERING, VOLS 1 AND 2 | 2003年
关键词：
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
TU [建筑科学];
学科分类号：
0813 ;
摘要：
A probabilistic model for the prediction of flood discharges is presented. The objective is to make one-step-ahead predictions of river peak flood discharges. The model is based on a filtered Poisson process to represent the process of instantaneous river flows. An analytical expression is found for the conditionnal probability density of next flood discharge given the last flood discharge. A case study is also presented. The results obtained using two predictors based on the model are compared to those obtained using an order one autoregressive model.
引用
收藏
页码：867 / 871
页数：5
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [21] A Hybrid Model for Fast and Probabilistic Urban Pluvial Flood Prediction
    Li, Xiaohan
    Willems, Patrick
    WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2020, 56 (06)
  • [22] Joint modeling of flood peak discharges, volume and duration: a case study of the Danube River in Bratislava
    Mitkova, Veronika Bacova
    Halmova, Dana
    JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY AND HYDROMECHANICS, 2014, 62 (03) : 186 - 196
  • [23] SIMPLIFIED METHOD FOR FLOOD PEAK PREDICTION BASED UPON INITIAL OUTFLOW
    HONDA, K
    ELECTRICAL ENGINEERING IN JAPAN, 1972, 91 (03) : 139 - &
  • [24] Prediction of maximum annual flood discharges using artificial neural network approaches
    Anilan, Tugce
    Nacar, Sinan
    Kankal, Murat
    Yuksek, Omer
    GRADEVINAR, 2020, 72 (03): : 215 - 224
  • [25] Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data
    Zhao Linna
    Qi Dan
    Tian Fuyou
    Wu Hao
    Di Jingyue
    Wang Zhi
    Li Aihua
    ACTA METEOROLOGICA SINICA, 2012, 26 (01): : 62 - 71
  • [26] Impact of river morphology on extreme flood level prediction: a probabilistic approach
    van Vuren, S
    Kok, M
    Ouwerkerk, SJ
    SAFETY AND RELIABILITY, VOLS 1 AND 2, 2003, : 1653 - 1661
  • [27] Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data
    赵琳娜
    齐丹
    田付友
    吴昊
    狄靖月
    王志
    李爱华
    ActaMeteorologicaSinica, 2012, 26 (01) : 62 - 71
  • [28] Probabilistic flood prediction in the upper Huaihe catchment using TIGGE data
    Linna Zhao
    Dan Qi
    Fuyou Tian
    Hao Wu
    Jingyue Di
    Zhi Wang
    Aihua Li
    Acta Meteorologica Sinica, 2012, 26 : 62 - 71
  • [29] A Path Toward Short-Term Probabilistic Flash Flood Prediction
    Martinaitis, Steven M.
    Wilson, Katie A.
    Yussouf, Nusrat
    Gourley, Jonathan J.
    Vergara, Humberto
    Meyer, Tiffany C.
    Heinselman, Pamela L.
    Gerard, Alan
    Berry, Kodi L.
    Vergara, Andres
    Monroe, Justin
    BULLETIN OF THE AMERICAN METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY, 2023, 104 (03) : E585 - E605
  • [30] Probabilistic Flood Prediction in the Upper Huaihe Catchment Using TIGGE Data
    赵琳娜
    齐丹
    田付友
    吴昊
    狄靖月
    王志
    李爱华
    Journal of Meteorological Research, 2012, (01) : 62 - 71
12345