The Relationship between Carbon Dioxide Emissions and Industrial Structure Adjustment for Shandong Province

From 2005, the industrial added value and carbon dioxide emissions in Shandong Province have been all ranked first in China. The article focuses on quantifying the relationship between CO2 emissions and industrial structure adjustment. Cointegration tests indicate that there exist the long-term stable equilibrium relationship between industrial structure and the emissions in Shandong Province. Granger causality tests show that the industrial structure is the reason for the change of the emissions, but the latter is not a reason for the former. By building the decomposition model of CO2 emissions, the contribution of economic growth, industrial structure and technical efficiency to the growth of CO2 emissions are measured and three important conclusions are drawn: (1) the change in the total economy is the most important factor to promote the emissions;(2) the change in industrial structure has the different contribution to the emissions in different stages, in 1994-99 and 2006-09, the contribution rate is negative, which indicates that changes in industrial structure curb the emissions;(3) technical efficiency is the main factor to reduce emissions, but compared with the role of economic growth, the effect of technical efficiency is very limited. (C) 2011 Published by Elsevier Ltd. Selection and peer-review under responsibility of RIUDS