Proposing a new function for evaluation of the financial risk of construction projects using Monte Carlo method: Application on Iranian construction industry

被引：11

作者：

Ildarabadi, Pouria ^{[1
]}

Alamatian, Javad ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Islamic Azad Univ, Civil Engn Dept, Taft Branch, Taft, Iran

[2] Islamic Azad Univ, Civil Engn Dept, Mashhad Branch, Mashhad, Razavi Khorasan, Iran

来源：

JOURNAL OF BUILDING ENGINEERING | 2021年 / 43卷

关键词：

Financial risk; Construction projects; Monte Carlo simulation; TIME; MANAGEMENT; ALLOCATION; MODELS; CBO;

D O I：

10.1016/j.jobe.2021.103143

中图分类号：

TU [建筑科学];

学科分类号：

0813 ;

摘要：

In this paper, the financial risk of construction projects is investigated. This process is carried out by proposing a new function based on three design variables, i.e. Cost List (CL), Material Cost (MC) and Final estimation Cost (FC). Deviations of these parameters are evaluated in ten years period, from 2004 to 2014. In the next step, distribution function and their relative parameters (mean and standard deviation) are determined. The efficiency of the proposed function is verified using the Monte Carlo simulation approach. The proposed simulation process has an ability to evaluate the economic conditions of construction projects. Moreover, the suggested procedure helps to evaluate the financial risk with suitable accuracy.

引用

页数：7

共 50 条

[31] Improvement of the Quality of Calculations Using the Monte Carlo Simulation Method in the Evaluation of Mining Investment Projects
Marchenko, Roman S.
Cherepovitsyn, Alexey E.
PROCEEDINGS OF THE 2017 INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE QUALITY MANAGEMENT,TRANSPORT AND INFORMATION SECURITY, INFORMATION TECHNOLOGIES (IT&QM&IS), 2017, : 246 - 250
[32] Risk and uncertainty in development A critical evaluation of using the Monte Carlo simulation method as a decision tool in real estate development projects
Loizou, Pavlos
French, Nick
JOURNAL OF PROPERTY INVESTMENT & FINANCE, 2012, 30 (02) : 198 - +
[33] Risk assessment model for international construction projects considering risk interdependence using the DEMATEL method
Zhu, Fengfeng
Hu, Hao
Xu, Feng
PLOS ONE, 2022, 17 (05):
[34] KNOW-HOW TRANSFER METHOD AND ITS APPLICATION TO RISK MANAGEMENT FOR LARGE CONSTRUCTION PROJECTS
NIWA, K
OKUMA, M
IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT, 1982, 29 (04) : 146 - 153
[35] Practical application of Earned Value Method to evaluation of progress status of medium size construction projects
Czemplik, A.
3RD INTERNATIONAL CONFERENCE ON INNOVATIVE MATERIALS, STRUCTURES AND TECHNOLOGIES (IMST 2017), 2017, 251
[36] A meta-network-based risk evaluation and control method for industrialized building construction projects
Wang, Tao
Gao, Shangde
Li, Xiaodong
Ning, Xin
JOURNAL OF CLEANER PRODUCTION, 2018, 205 : 552 - 564
[37] Proposing a model for safety risk assessment in the construction industry using gray multi-criterion decision-making
Abootorabi, S. M.
Mehrno, H.
Omidvari, M.
JOURNAL OF HEALTH AND SAFETY AT WORK, 2014, 4 (03) : 67 - +
[38] The Evaluation of the Contractor's Risk in Implementing the Investment Projects in Construction by Using the Verbal Analysis Methods
Shevchenko, Galina
Ustinovichius, Leonas
Walasek, Dariusz
SUSTAINABILITY, 2019, 11 (09)
[39] Improving Power System Risk Evaluation Method Using Monte Carlo Simulation and Gaussian Mixture Method
Mousavi, Omid A.
Farashbashi-Astaneh, Mostafa S.
Gharehpetian, Gevork B.
ADVANCES IN ELECTRICAL AND COMPUTER ENGINEERING, 2009, 9 (02) : 38 - 44
[40] Using Relative Importance Index Method for Developing Risk Map in Oil and Gas Construction Projects
Kassem, Mukhtar A.
Khoiry, Muhamad Azry
Hamzah, Noraini
JURNAL KEJURUTERAAN, 2020, 32 (03): : 85 - 97

← 1 2 3 4 5 →