Does global warming threaten small-scale bivalve fisheries in NW Spain?

Shellfisheries of the intertidal and shallow subtidal infaunal bivalves Ruditapes decussatus, Ruditapes philip-pinarum, Venerupis corrugata and Cerastoderma edule are of great socio-economic importance (in terms of land-ings) in Europe, specifically in the Galician Rias Baixas (NW Spain). However, ocean warming may threaten these fisheries by modifying the geographic distribution of the species and thus affecting productive areas. The present study analysed the impact of rising ocean temperature on the geographical distribution of the thermal comfort areas of these bivalves throughout the 21st century. The Delft3D model was used to downscale climate data from CORDEX and CMIP5 and was run for July and August in three future periods (2025-2049, 2050-2074 and 2075-2099) under the RCP8.5 scenario. The areas with optimal temperature conditions for shellfish harvesting located in the middle and outer parts of the rias may increase in the near future for R. decussatus, V. corrugata and C. edule and decrease in the far future for R. philippinarum. Moreover, shellfish beds located in the shallower areas of the inner parts of the Rias Baixas could be affected by increased water temperature, reducing the productive areas of the four species by the end of the century. The projected changes in thermal condition will probably lead to changes in shellfish harvesting modality (on foot or aboard vessels) with further socio-economic consequences.