Lost in space: design of experiments and scientific exploration in a Hogarth Universe

被引：22

作者：

Lendrem, Dennis W. ^{[1
]}

Lendrem, B. Clare ^{[1
]}

Woods, David ^{[2
]}

Rowland-Jones, Ruth ^{[3
]}

Burke, Matthew ^{[4
]}

Chatfield, Marion ^{[5
]}

Isaacs, John D. ^{[1
]}

Owen, Martin R. ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Newcastle Univ, Inst Cellular Med, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England

[2] Univ Southampton, Southampton Stat Sci Res Inst, Southampton, Hants, England

[3] Newcastle Univ, Ctr Bioengn, Newcastle Upon Tyne, Tyne & Wear, England

[4] GlaxoSmithKline, King Of Prussia, PA USA

[5] GlaxoSmithKline, Med Res Ctr, Stevenage, Herts, England

来源：

DRUG DISCOVERY TODAY | 2015年 / 20卷 / 11期

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

HINDSIGHT BIAS; ENVIRONMENT; DISCOVERY; INFERENCE; OPTIMISM; SUCCESS; DOE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.drudis.2015.09.015

中图分类号：

R9 [药学];

学科分类号：

1007 ;

摘要：

A Hogarth, or 'wicked', universe is an irregular environment generating data to support erroneous beliefs. Here, we argue that development scientists often work in such a universe. We demonstrate that exploring these multidimensional spaces using small experiments guided by scientific intuition alone, gives rise to an illusion of validity and a misplaced confidence in that scientific intuition. By contrast, design of experiments (DOE) permits the efficient mapping of such complex, multidimensional spaces. We describe simulation tools that enable research scientists to explore these spaces in relative safety.

引用

页码：1365 / 1371

页数：7

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