Risk Analysis Model in Hydro Engineering Construction Considering Discharge Control of Upriver Reservoir

The diversion criteria could not be extremely high in construction period of a water project by reason of diversion scale, costs and schedule etc. Therefore, it is an important strategy to decrease project cost and construction risk considering the function of discharge control of upriver reservoir. An analysis model for construction risk considering both discharge control of upriver reservoir and the interval inflow were established, furthermore, by taken a real project for example, the model was analyzed and solved by using composite probability method. The result indicates that the method could decrease the construction risk of the project effectively, and the energy output loss of the upriver reservoir could be neglectable and the benefits from risk reduction could be significant if operation was reasonable.