Decomposition analysis and decoupling effects of factors driving carbon emissions produced by electricity generation

Development of a low-carbon power industry in the Yellow River Basin is crucial for developing the "double- carbon" strategy. Previous studies have failed to consider the decomposition of carbon emissions and ignored the decoupling effect of power output and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin. This study constructs a Generalized Divisia Index (GDI) model to quantify the contribution of factors driving carbon emission changes in the eight provinces of the Yellow River Basin during 2005-2021. Further, the decoupling dynamics between carbon emissions and electricity output are analyzed based on the Tapio decoupling model. The factors contributing to the CO2 emissions were energy structure and energy consumption, which contributed average rates of 73.1% and 52.4%. That played a dampening role was electricity carbon reduction technology, with -22.5%. Power structure was the main driver for the enhancement in CO2 emissions, contributing 727.9 (100Mt). The reduction factor was the carbon intensity of electricity (-191.3 (100Mt)). Henan made the smallest contribution to carbon emissions and Ningxia made the largest.The provinces in the Yellow River Basin have weak decoupling and expansive coupling; electricity cost is negatively related to the decoupling index, and carbon emissions and electricity output decouple when electricity cost rises.