Carbon emissions in the logistics industry: driving factors and decoupling effects

The explosive growth of the logistics industry has led to an increase in energy consumption and carbon emissions. To reduce emissions and increase the efficiency of the logistics industry, we studied the driving factors and decoupling effects of carbon emissions of logistics industry (LICE). First, an energy coefficient method is used to calculate the LICE. Second, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method is used to decompose the driving factors of LICE into five types. Third, the decoupling model is used to explore the decoupling relationship between economic growth and LICE. Considering Anhui Province as an example, this study describes the method's implementation process based on a comparison of the four Yangtze River Delta provinces and cities. The results indicate that the growth rate of LICE in Anhui Province has decreased during the research period, from 9.7% in 2013 to 2.1% in 2021; however, the Tapio decoupling elasticity has been approximately 0.4 for the last 2 years, remaining in a weak decoupling stage from economic development. The LMDI decomposition results indicate that the average contribution of economic level to carbon emissions is 1.763. This study proposes some solutions and recommendations for the logistics industry's low-carbon development to offer methodological and theoretical support for LICE research.