Dynamics and Decoupling Analysis of Carbon Emissions from Construction Industry in China

The construction industry is the backbone of most countries, but its carbon emissions are huge and growing rapidly, constraining the achievement of global carbon-peaking and carbon-neutrality goals. China's carbon emissions are the highest in the world, and the construction industry is the largest contributor. Due to significant differences between provinces in pressure, potential, and motivation to reduce emissions, the "one-size-fits-all" emission reduction policy has failed to achieve the desired results. This paper empirically investigates the spatial and temporal evolution of carbon emissions in China's construction industry and their decoupling relationship with economic growth relying on GIS tools and decoupling model in an attempt to provide a basis for the formulation of differentiated construction emission reduction policies and plans in China. The study shows that, firstly, the changes in carbon emissions and carbon intensity in the provincial construction industry are becoming increasingly complex, with a variety of types emerging, such as declining, "inverted U-shaped", growing, "U-shaped", and smooth fluctuating patterns. Secondly, the coefficient of variation is higher than 0.65 for a long time, indicating high spatial heterogeneity. However, spatial agglomeration and correlation are low, with only a few cluster-like agglomerations formed in the Pearl River Delta, Yangtze River Delta, Bohai Bay, Northeast China, and Loess and Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau regions. Thirdly, most provinces have not reached peak carbon emissions from the construction industry, with 25% having reached peak and being in the plateau stage, respectively. Fourthly, the decoupling relationship between carbon emissions from the construction industry and economic growth, as well as their changes, is increasingly diversified, and most provinces are in a strong and weak decoupling state. Moreover, a growing number of provinces that have achieved decoupling are moving backward to re-coupling, due to the impact of economic transformation and the outbreaks of COVID-19, with the degraded regions increasingly concentrated in the northeast and northwest. Fifthly, we classify China's 30 provinces into Leader, Intermediate, and Laggard policy zones and further propose differentiated response strategies. In conclusion, studying the trends and patterns of carbon-emission changes in the construction industry in different regions, revealing their spatial differentiation and correlation, and developing a classification management strategy for low carbonized development of the construction industry help significantly improve the reliability, efficiency, and self-adaptability of policy design and implementation.