US-China agricultural trade and environmental outcomes: The case of nutrient runoff to the Gulf of Mexico

We quantify the relationship between nitrogen (N) runoff to the Gulf of Mexico, U.S. agricultural production, and exports to China using an integrated assessment model. We show that a 25% Chinese tariff on U.S. soybean and corn increases annual N runoff to the Gulf by 800 metric tons (0.2%) as soybean production in the Mississippi River Basin is displaced with more N-intensive crops. Results also indicate that reducing N runoff to the Gulf by 10% decreases U.S. corn export to China by 14.5%, similar to the effect of a 25% Chinese tariff on corn and soybeans.