ORCHID - A COMPUTER SIMULATION OF THE RELIABILITY OF AN NDE INSPECTION SYSTEM.

CANDU pressurized heavy water reactors contain several hundred horizontally-mounted zirconium alloy pressure tubes. Following a pressure tube failure, a pressure tube inspection system called CIGARette was rapidly designed, manufactured and put in operation. Defects called hydride blisters were found to be the cause of the failure, and were detected using a combination of eddy current and ultrasonic scans. A number of improvements were made to CIGARette during the inspection period. The ORCHID computer program models the operation of the delivery system, eddy current and ultrasonic systems by imitating the on-reactor decision-making procedure. ORCHID predicts that during the early stage of development, less than one blistered tube in three would be detected, while less than one in two would be detected in the middle development stage. However, ORCHID predicts that during the late development stage, probability of detection will be over 90%, primarily due to the inclusion of axial ultrasonic scans (a procedural modification). Rotational and axial slip could severely reduce probability of detection.