Meteorological drought grade prediction using three-dimensional log-linear models

被引：0
|
作者：
Feng, Ping [1 ]
Hu, Rong [1 ]
Li, Jian-Zhu [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
来源：
Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering | 2014年 / 45卷 / 05期
关键词：
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 21 rain gauges during the period of 1958-2009 in the Panjiakou Reservoir catchment of the Luanhe River Basin; drought class time series were derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series computed in a 12-month time scale. Log-linear models for three-dimensional contingency tables were fitted to the observed frequencies of drought class transitions during the period of 1958-2008. Odds and respective confidence intervals for drought class transitions were also calculated to estimate the drought class transition probabilities. Thus the drought classes with 1 and 2 months lead were predicted and the short term meteorological drought class prediction was achieved in the studied area. The validation of the predictions was performed for the 2009 drought. The results show that the contingency tables of drought class transitions present a strong diagonal tendency and results for all sites show a similar agreement between observed and expected frequencies with all the models presenting a test p-value exceeding the chosen significance level of α=0.05. And results of three-dimensional log-linear modeling present good results when comparing predicted and observed drought classes for those 21 stations. It could be concluded that log-linear prediction of drought class transitions is useful for short term drought warning in the Panjiakou Reservoir catchment;
D O I：
10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2014.05.001
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
引用
收藏
页码：505 / 512
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] TABLE SELECTION AND LOG-LINEAR MODELS
    FREEMAN, DH
    JEKEL, JF
    JOURNAL OF CHRONIC DISEASES, 1980, 33 (08): : 513 - 524
  • [42] LOG-LINEAR MODELS WITH RANDOM PARAMETERS
    LAIRD, N
    BIOMETRICS, 1977, 33 (03) : 580 - 581
  • [43] Equivalence of Generative and Log-Linear Models
    Heigold, Georg
    Ney, Hermann
    Lehnen, Patrick
    Gass, Tobias
    Schlueter, Ralf
    IEEE TRANSACTIONS ON AUDIO SPEECH AND LANGUAGE PROCESSING, 2011, 19 (05): : 1138 - 1148
  • [44] LOG-LINEAR MODELS FOR LINKED LOCI
    WEIR, BS
    WILSON, SR
    BIOMETRICS, 1986, 42 (03) : 665 - 670
  • [45] Restricted Graphical Log-linear Models
    Ramirez-Aldana, Ricardo
    Eslava-Gomez, Guillermina
    AUSTRIAN JOURNAL OF STATISTICS, 2015, 44 (04) : 17 - 33
  • [46] Canonical representation of log-linear models
    Rudas, T
    COMMUNICATIONS IN STATISTICS-THEORY AND METHODS, 2002, 31 (12) : 2311 - 2323
  • [47] Bayesian selection of log-linear models
    Albert, JH
    CANADIAN JOURNAL OF STATISTICS-REVUE CANADIENNE DE STATISTIQUE, 1996, 24 (03): : 327 - 347
  • [48] Log-Linear Models for Gene Association
    Hu, Jianhua
    Joshi, Adarsh
    Johnson, Valen E.
    JOURNAL OF THE AMERICAN STATISTICAL ASSOCIATION, 2009, 104 (486) : 597 - 607
  • [49] ON ZERO CELLS IN LOG-LINEAR MODELS
    MUKERJEE, R
    SANKHYA-THE INDIAN JOURNAL OF STATISTICS SERIES B, 1987, 49 : 97 - 102
  • [50] LOG-LINEAR MODELS OF RESIDENTIAL CHOICE
    CADWALLADER, M
    AREA, 1992, 24 (03) : 289 - 294
12345