Meteorological drought grade prediction using three-dimensional log-linear models

被引：0
|
作者：
Feng, Ping [1 ]
Hu, Rong [1 ]
Li, Jian-Zhu [1 ]
机构：
[1] State Key Laboratory of Hydraulic Engineering Simulation and Safety, Tianjin University, Tianjin 300072, China
来源：
Shuili Xuebao/Journal of Hydraulic Engineering | 2014年 / 45卷 / 05期
关键词：
Based on the monthly precipitation data from 21 rain gauges during the period of 1958-2009 in the Panjiakou Reservoir catchment of the Luanhe River Basin; drought class time series were derived from Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) time series computed in a 12-month time scale. Log-linear models for three-dimensional contingency tables were fitted to the observed frequencies of drought class transitions during the period of 1958-2008. Odds and respective confidence intervals for drought class transitions were also calculated to estimate the drought class transition probabilities. Thus the drought classes with 1 and 2 months lead were predicted and the short term meteorological drought class prediction was achieved in the studied area. The validation of the predictions was performed for the 2009 drought. The results show that the contingency tables of drought class transitions present a strong diagonal tendency and results for all sites show a similar agreement between observed and expected frequencies with all the models presenting a test p-value exceeding the chosen significance level of α=0.05. And results of three-dimensional log-linear modeling present good results when comparing predicted and observed drought classes for those 21 stations. It could be concluded that log-linear prediction of drought class transitions is useful for short term drought warning in the Panjiakou Reservoir catchment;
D O I：
10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.2014.05.001
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页码：505 / 512
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