Selecting the number of factors in multi-variate time series

被引:0
|
作者
Caro, Angela [1 ]
Pena, Daniel [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Carlos III Madrid, Dept Stat, Madrid, Spain
关键词
Correlation matrices; dynamic factor model; forecasting; large data sets; Monte Carlo; DYNAMIC FACTOR MODELS; PRINCIPAL COMPONENTS; IDENTIFICATION;
D O I
10.1111/jtsa.12760
中图分类号
O1 [数学];
学科分类号
0701 ; 070101 ;
摘要
How many factors are there? It is a critical question that researchers and practitioners deal with when estimating factor models. We proposed a new eigenvalue ratio criterion for the number of factors in static approximate factor models. It considers a pooled squared correlation matrix which is defined as a weighted combination of the main observed squared correlation matrices. Theoretical results are given to justify the expected good properties of the criterion, and a Monte Carlo study shows its good finite sample performance in different scenarios, depending on the idiosyncratic error structure and factor strength. We conclude comparing different criteria in a forecasting exercise with macroeconomic data.
引用
收藏
页码:113 / 136
页数:24
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