Prognostic performance of MRI LI-RADS version 2018 features and clinical-pathological factors in alpha-fetoprotein-negative hepatocellular carcinoma

Purpose To evaluate the role of the magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) Liver Imaging Reporting and Data System (LI-RADS) version 2018 features and clinical-pathological factors for predicting the prognosis of alpha-fetoprotein (AFP)-negative (<= 20 ng/ml) hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients, and to compare with other traditional staging systems. Methods We retrospectively enrolled 169 patients with AFP-negative HCC who received preoperative MRI and hepatectomy between January 2015 and August 2020 (derivation dataset:validation dataset = 118:51). A prognostic model was constructed using the risk factors identified via Cox regression analysis. Predictive performance and discrimination capability were evaluated and compared with those of two traditional staging systems. Results Six risk factors, namely the LI-RADS category, blood products in mass, microvascular invasion, tumor size, cirrhosis, and albumin-bilirubin grade, were associated with recurrence-free survival. The prognostic model constructed using these factors achieved C-index of 0.705 and 0.674 in the derivation and validation datasets, respectively. Furthermore, the model performed better in predicting patient prognosis than traditional staging systems. The model effectively stratified patients with AFP-negative HCC into high- and low-risk groups with significantly different outcomes (p < 0.05). Conclusion A prognostic model integrating the LI-RADS category, blood products in mass, microvascular invasion, tumor size, cirrhosis, and albumin-bilirubin grade may serve as a valuable tool for refining risk stratification in patients with AFP-negative HCC.