DYNAMIC SIMULATIONS OF MIXED BROADLEAVED PINUS-KORAIENSIS FORESTS IN THE CHANGBAISHAN BIOSPHERE RESERVE OF CHINA

The development of mixed broadleaved-Korean pine (Pinus koraiensis Sieb. et Zucc.) forests in the Changbaishan Biosphere Reserve, located on the border with North Korea, was simulated using the gap model KOPIDE. Forest succession was simulated under three initial conditions from: (1) bare ground after clearcutting; (2) secondary forest; (3) old-growth forest. The simulations from the different initial conditions converged and support earlier successional theory that Korean pine is the climax species on the highlands of northeast China even under disturbed conditions. In addition to clear-cutting, the resilience of the forest to different levels of other human impacts, pine seed harvesting and selective cutting, was examined. These results further demonstrate that these forests possess a relatively stable structure characterized by the dominance of Korean pine. However, the model showed successional processes of the forest to be susceptible to high levels of pine seed harvesting. To predict forest dynamics at landscape scales, KOPIDE was linked with a Geographical Information System containing site and stand data sets. Running this model to simulate a forested area initially comprising several successional stages suggests that, in the absence of disturbance, Korean pine is likely to become increasingly dominant on the area over the next century.