FUTURE-DEMAND FOR DOCTORS IN CHINA

A computer simulation model for estimating doctor requirements is built according to the determinants of demand for doctors and the data availability of China. The future demand for doctors in China is estimated deterministically and stochastically based on explicit assumptions about future population dynamics, use of health services, and the productivity of health resources. The main conclusion of analyzing the projection results is that the growth in the number of doctors in China should be slowed down and more attention given to the quality of training for doctors and the training of qualified village doctors.