A FORTRAN PROGRAM FOR MONTE-CARLO SIMULATION OF OIL-FIELD DISCOVERY SEQUENCES

We have developed a program for performing Monte Carlo simulation of oil-field discovery histories. A synthetic parent population of fields is generated as a finite sample from a distribution of specified form. The discovery sequence then is simulated by sampling without replacement from this parent population in accordance with a probabilistic discovery process model. The program computes a chi-squared deviation between synthetic and actual discovery sequences as a function of the parameters of the discovery process model, the number of fields in the parent population, and the distributional parameters of the parent population. The program employs the three-parameter log gamma model for the distribution of field sizes and employs a two-parameter discovery process model, allowing the simulation of a wide range of scenarios.