MODELLING THE PREDICTION OF DENGUE OUTBREAK USING SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Dengue virus had become the dominant mosquito-borne disease in Malaysia. With no positive progress on the development of vaccine, other ways in dealing with the virus is to predict the next outbreak which is also the aim of this paper. This dengue model based on system dynamics approach gives valuable information to decision makers in determining the strategies for vector control. The array of factors involved such as temperature, rainfall and population density that significantly influence virus transmission, give opportunity for a system approach in providing answer to the complicated relationship which exist in dengue system. System dynamics dengue model is able to simulate reasonable and promising results, which can be used as basis for future researcher to model more accurate and detail dengue transmission control system.