A BAYES-COMPETING RISK MODEL FOR THE USE OF EXPERT JUDGMENT IN RELIABILITY ESTIMATION

被引：9
|
作者：
COOLEN, FPA
MERTENS, PR
NEWBY, MJ
机构：
[1] TECH UNIV EINDHOVEN,FAC IND ENGN,POSTBOX 530,5600 MB EINDHOVEN,NETHERLANDS
[2] KEMIRA BV,RELIABIL ASSURANCE,3180 AA ROZENBURG,NETHERLANDS
来源：
RELIABILITY ENGINEERING & SYSTEM SAFETY | 1992年 / 35卷 / 01期
关键词：
D O I：
10.1016/0951-8320(92)90018-G
中图分类号：
T [工业技术];
学科分类号：
08 ;
摘要：
In an analysis of the reliability of heat exchangers, a number of causes of failure and a number of potential failure patterns were identified. To allow a simplification of the analysis, five independent groups of failure causes were defined and formed the basis of a competing risks model. Further, lack of data and poor quality data required the experience of 'experts' to be used in a quantitative way through Bayesian methods. Lastly, to simplify the elicitation of the prior densities, a shape, scale and location parameter model for the failure time distributions was adopted.
引用
收藏
页码：23 / 30
页数：8
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