Analysis of factors influencing carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta region and projections of carbon peak scenarios

Based on the supply-side perspective,the improved STIRPAT model is applied to reveal the mechanisms of supply-side factors such as human,capital,technology,industrial synergy,institutions and economic growth on carbon emissions in the Yangtze River Delta(YRD) through path analysis,and to forecast carbon emissions in the YRD from the baseline scenario,factor regulation scenario and integrated scenario to reach the peak.The results show that:(1) Jiangsu’s high carbon emission pattern is the main reason for the YRD hindering the synergistic regulation of carbon emissions.(2) Human factors,institutional factors and economic growth factors can all contribute to carbon emissions in the YRD region,while technological and industrial factors can generally suppress carbon emissions in the YRD region.(3) Under the capital regulation scenario,the YRD region has the highest level of carbon emission synergy,with Jiangsu reaching its peak five years earlier.Under the balanced regulation scenario,the YRD region as a whole,Jiangsu,Zhejiang and Anhui reach the peak as scheduled.