Anthropogenic influence on the extreme drought in eastern China in 2022 and its future risk

被引：0
|
作者：
Yinjun Zhang
Lin Chen
Yuqing Li
Zi-An Ge
机构：
[1] Ministry of Education(KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environmental Change(ILCEC)/Collaboraave Innovaaon Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters(CIC-FEMD)
[2] Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology
[3] Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster
来源：
Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters | 2024年 / 17卷 / 01期
基金：
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词：
极端干旱; 中国东部; 归因分析; 人为强迫; 未来预估;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
P426.616 [降水引起的灾害];
学科分类号：
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要：
2022年夏季中国东部地区遭遇了一次持续性极端高温干旱事件.本文利用CMIP6检测归因比较计划(DAMIP)数据,量化了人为强迫对类2022年极端干旱事件发生概率的影响,并基于未来不同增暖情景试验给出了此类极端干旱事件的未来变化预估.通过分析不同外强迫因子作用下此类极端干旱事件的发生概率变化,发现人为强迫使此类极端干旱事件的发生概率提高约56%,这主要与人为强迫下中国东部平均水汽减少和平均上升运动减弱有关.进一步通过分析此类极端干旱事件对不同温室气体排放情景(SSP1-2.6,SSP2-4.5,SSP5-8.5)的响应,发现在低排放情景下类2022年极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候显著下降,这主要与中国东部平均水汽的增加和平均环流的变化有关,而在高排放情景(SSP5-8.5)下,此类极端干旱事件的发生概率较当今气候增加约79%,这主要与高排放情景下平均下沉运动增强有关.该研究表明,人为强迫通过调制气候平均背景场从而引起极端事件发生频次的变化是人类活动影响极端气候事件的重要途径之一,极端干旱事件对温室气体排放量的响应可能是非线性的.
引用
收藏
页码：23 / 29
页数：7
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