The impact of atmospheric initialisation on seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific SST

被引:0
|
作者
Debra Hudson
Oscar Alves
Harry H. Hendon
Guomin Wang
机构
[1] Bureau of Meteorology,Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR), A partnership between the Australian Bureau of Meteorology and CSIRO
来源
Climate Dynamics | 2011年 / 36卷
关键词
Seasonal prediction; Dynamic model initialisation; ENSO prediction; Atmosphere–ocean coupling; Prediction skill; Global coupled ocean–atmosphere modelling;
D O I
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中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
The impact of realistic atmospheric initialisation on the seasonal prediction of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures is explored with the Predictive Ocean–Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA) dynamical seasonal forecast system. Previous versions of POAMA used data from an Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-style simulation to initialise the atmosphere for the hindcast simulations. The initial conditions for the hindcasts did not, therefore, capture the true intra-seasonal atmospheric state. The most recent version of POAMA has a new Atmosphere and Land Initialisation scheme (ALI), which captures the observed intra-seasonal atmospheric state. We present the ALI scheme and then compare the forecast skill of two hindcast datasets, one with AMIP-type initialisation and one with realistic initial conditions from ALI, focussing on the prediction of El Niño. For eastern Pacific (Niño3) sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs), both experiments beat persistence and have useful SSTA prediction skill (anomaly correlations above 0.6) at all lead times (forecasts are 9 months duration). However, the experiment with realistic atmospheric initial conditions from ALI is an improvement over the AMIP-type initialisation experiment out to about 6 months lead time. The improvements in skill are related to improved initial atmospheric anomalies rather than an improved initial mean state (the forecast drift is worse in the ALI hindcast dataset). Since we are dealing with a coupled system, initial atmospheric errors (or differences between experiments) are amplified though coupled processes which can then lead to long lasting errors (or differences).
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页码:1155 / 1171
页数:16
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