Improvement of Local Categorical Precipitation Forecasts from an NWP Model by Various Statistical Postprocessing Methods

被引：0
|
作者：
Zbyněk Sokol
Daniela Řezáčová
机构：
[1] Acad. Sci,Institute of Atmospheric Physics
[2] Czech Republic,undefined
来源：
Studia Geophysica et Geodaetica | 2000年 / 44卷
关键词：
Statistical postprocessing; Precipitation forecast; NWP model;
D O I：
暂无
中图分类号：
学科分类号：
摘要：
Several statistical postprocessing methods are applied to results from a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model to test the potential for increasing the accuracy of its local precipitation forecasts. Categorical (Yes/No) forecasts for 12hr precipitation sums equalling or exceeding 0.1, 2.0 and 5.0 mm are selected for improvement. The two 12hr periods 0600-1800 UTC and 1800-0600 UTC are treated separately based on NWP model initial times 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC, respectively. Input data are taken from three successive summer seasons, April-September, 1994-96. The forecasts are prepared and verified for five synoptic stations, four located in the western Czech Republic, and one in Germany near the Czech-German border.
引用
收藏
页码：38 / 56
页数：18
相关论文
共 50 条
  • [41] Can bias correction and statistical downscaling methods improve the skill of seasonal precipitation forecasts?
    Manzanas, R.
    Lucero, A.
    Weisheimer, A.
    Gutierrez, J. M.
    CLIMATE DYNAMICS, 2018, 50 (3-4) : 1161 - 1176
  • [42] Statistical methods for ordered categorical data based on a constrained odds model
    Dark, R
    Bolland, K
    Whitehead, J
    BIOMETRICAL JOURNAL, 2003, 45 (04) : 453 - 470
  • [43] Improvement of the Ensemble Methods in the Dynamical-Statistical-Analog Ensemble Forecast Model for Landfalling Typhoon Precipitation
    Jia, Li
    Ren, Fumin
    Ding, Chenchen
    Jia, Zuo
    Wang, Mingyang
    Chen, Yuxu
    Feng, Tian
    JOURNAL OF THE METEOROLOGICAL SOCIETY OF JAPAN, 2022, 100 (03) : 575 - 592
  • [44] Direct verification of forecasts from a very high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model
    K. L. Batt
    R. P. Morison
    M. S. Speer
    Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2000, 74 : 117 - 127
  • [45] Statistical Modeling for Improvement of Numerical-Model-Based Solar Radiation Forecasts
    Brabec, Marek
    Eben, Krystof
    Pelikan, Emil
    Krc, Pavel
    Resler, Jaroslav
    Jurus, Pavel
    PROCEEDINGS OF THE THIRD INTERNATIONAL AFRO-EUROPEAN CONFERENCE FOR INDUSTRIAL ADVANCEMENT-AECIA 2016, 2018, 565 : 248 - 257
  • [46] Direct verification of forecasts from a very high resolution numerical weather prediction (NWP) model
    Batt, KL
    Morison, RP
    Speer, MS
    METEOROLOGY AND ATMOSPHERIC PHYSICS, 2000, 74 (1-4) : 117 - 127
  • [47] Statistical and dynamical downscaling of precipitation over Spain from DEMETER seasonal forecasts
    Díez, E
    Primo, C
    García-Moya, JA
    Gutiérrez, JM
    Orfila, B
    TELLUS SERIES A-DYNAMIC METEOROLOGY AND OCEANOGRAPHY, 2005, 57 (03): : 409 - 423
  • [48] Evaluation of the Dynamical-Statistical Downscaling Model for Extended Range Precipitation Forecasts in China
    Cai, Hongke
    Zhao, Zuosen
    Zheng, Jiawen
    Luo, Wei
    Li, Huaiyu
    ATMOSPHERE, 2022, 13 (10)
  • [49] Bayesian logistic regression in providing categorical streamflow forecasts using precipitation output from climate models
    Yuannan Long
    Qian Lv
    Xiaofeng Wen
    Shixiong Yan
    Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment, 2023, 37 : 639 - 650
  • [50] Quantitative precipitation forecasts:: a statistical adaptation of model outputs through an analogues sorting approach
    Obled, C
    Bontron, G
    Garçon, R
    ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH, 2002, 63 (3-4) : 303 - 324
12345