Spatial-temporal pattern evolution of manufacturing geographical agglomeration and influencing factors of old industrial base: A case of Jilin Province, China

The primary object of this paper is to examine the spatial-temporal pattern evolution of manufacturing geographical agglomeration of the old industrial base. Industrial spatial agglomeration index and concentration ratio are used in this paper. Multiple linear regression models are also applied to try to explore the internal driving mechanisms on manufacturing geographical agglomeration. The results show that: 1) the manufacturing agglomeration degree of Jilin Province is increasing gradually. The spatial polarization structure is visible; and the central region is the agglomeration area, in addition, the manufacturing industries of Changchun Proper present a trend of dispersion; 2) the structure of manufacturing industries has changed, and the concentration ratio of labor-intensive manufacturing industry is declining, while the proportions of technology-intensive and capital-intensive manufacturing industry are relatively rising; 3) marketing level, location accessibility, labor resources, capital, science and technology innovation capability, scale economy and the level of globalization affect manufacturing agglomeration with different degree. There are significant differences of the effects about employment, technology, the quality of residents and the export-oriented market on the industrial concentration ratio; 4) in the future, the impact of policy and institution, export-oriented market and quality of resident on manufacturing geographical agglomeration pattern will be more profound.