Calculation of carbon emission efficiency in China and analysis of influencing factors

Carbon emissions have risen in line with China’s economic expansion. The key to sustainable development is finding a way to strike a balance between economic expansion and environmental protection, so improving carbon emission efficiency is vital. This paper uses provincial data from 2010 to 2020 to account for total carbon emissions using the emission factor method and obtains carbon emission efficiency data on this basis. A dynamic spatial Durbin model is then used to empirically test the possible influencing factors. The results show that, firstly, the growth rate of total carbon emissions is generally in line with the growth rate of GDP, indicating that there is no ‘decoupling’ in the economic system. Second, regional carbon emissions and carbon emission efficiency are not necessarily related. Thirdly, there is a clear spatial effect on carbon emission efficiency. The eastern region has the highest carbon emission efficiency, the western region has the lowest, and the northeastern and central regions have little difference in carbon emission efficiency. Further spatial and temporal migration analysis reveals that five provinces have made the migration between 2010 and 2020. Fourthly, in the short term, the direct and indirect effects of the factors affecting carbon emission efficiency are insignificant, but in the long term, most of the factors have significant direct and indirect effects on carbon emission efficiency. Finally, based on the above research findings, this paper makes policy recommendations.