The Great 2006 and 2007 Kuril Earthquakes, Forearc Segmentation and Seismic Activity of the Central Kuril Islands Region

We present a structural study of the Central Kuril Islands forearc region, where the great megathrust tsunamigenic earthquake (Mw 8.3) occurred on November 15, 2006. Based on new bathymetry and seismic profiles obtained during two research cruises of R/V Akademik Lavrentiev in 2005 and 2006, ten crustal segments with along-arc length ranging from 30 to 100 km, separated by NS– and NW–trending transcurrent faults were identified within the forearc region. The transcurrent faults may serve as barriers impeding stress transfer between the neighboring segments, so that stress accumulated within separate forearc segments is usually released by earthquakes of moderate-to-strong magnitudes. However, the great November 15, 2006 earthquake ruptured seven of the crustal segments probably following a 226-year gap since the last great earthquake in 1780. The geographic extent of earthquake rupture zones, aftershock areas and earthquake clusters correlate well with forearc crustal segments identified using the geophysical data. Based on segmented structure of the Central Kuril Islands forearc region, we consider and discuss three scenarios of a great earthquake occurrence within this area. Although the margin is segmented, we suggest that a rupture could occupy the entire seismic gap with a total length of about 500 km. In such a case, the earthquake magnitude Mw might exceed 8.5, and such an event might generate tsunami waves significantly exceeding in height to those produced by the great 2006–2007 Kuril earthquakes.