Analysis on spatial effect of environmental regulation on upgrading of industrial structure in China

Transformation and upgrading of industrial structure is the key link to achieve high-quality economic development in China. In recent years, China has begun to eliminate some industries with high energy consumption and high pollution through environmental regulation policies and promote transformation and upgrading the industrial structure. Under multiple pressures such as the shortage of industrial structure and the decline in the demographic dividend, environmental regulation as a binding force will have an significant impact on ecological protection and economic structure adjustment. With the promotion of the inter-regional integration strategy, the links between various regions are becoming closer and closer. Therefore, the environmental regulation policies implemented by the government will not only affect the region, but can also impact neighboring regions. So, how will environmental regulation affect the optimization of industrial structure in the local and surrounding areas and the mechanism and pathways of its impact are theoretical topics worthy of in-depth study, which have important practical significance for exploring the win–win sustainable development path of industrial structure optimization and ecological protection. This paper selects the data of 30 provinces and cities in China from 2009 to 2019, analyses their spatial distribution characteristics, and establishes a spatial Dubin model to explore the spatial effect of environmental regulation intensity on the upgrading of local and adjacent regional industrial structure. The research results show that: (1) China’s environmental regulation policy is not developed independently, but has certain relevance in space, that is, regions with higher environmental regulation intensity are adjacent to each other, and regions with lower environmental regulation are adjacent to each other; (2) The intensity of environmental regulation does not directly promote or inhibit the transformation and upgrading of the local industrial structure, but has a positive spatial spillover effect on the upgrading of the industrial structure in the surrounding areas; (3) The impact of environmental regulation policies on the upgrading of industrial structure is mainly reflected through indirect effects.