Construction land reduction projects as a pathway to sustainability: an empirical analysis of risks factors in China

Construction land reduction (CLR) is an effective instrument to improve intensive land use, restrict the expansion of construction land, safeguard the requisition-compensation balance of construction land in China, and realize sustainable development. But multiple risks arise from the process of construction land reduction. In that case, identifying and analyzing the key risks of CLR is the prerequisite for formulating practical policy guidelines. This study is conducted to identify the risk factors of CLR and analyze these risks based on expert opinion. Initially, the original risk factors are sourced from existing literature. In order to tailor them to China’s specific context, the Delphi method is employed to systematically refine risk definitions, consolidate similar risk elements, and identify any previously unrecognized risks in the literature. Following an in-depth review of the literature, we create a contextual relationship-based model employing an integrated technique of interpretive structural modeling (ISM) and Cross-Impact Matrix Multiplication Applied to Classification (MICMAC) analysis. Based on the ISM and MICMAC analysis, five key risks were identified, and the prevention strategies and policy recommendations for CLR project risks are put forward.