Prediction Markets and Election Polling: Granger Causality Tests Using InTrade and RealClearPolitics Data

被引：1

作者：

Duquette C. ^{[1
]}

Mixon F.G. ^{[2
]}

Jr. ^{[2
]}

Cebula R.J. ^{[3
]}

Upadhyaya K.P. ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] The MITRE Corporation, McLean

[2] Center for Economic Education, Columbus State University, Columbus

[3] Department of Economics and Finance, Jacksonville University, Jacksonville

[4] Department of Economics, University of New Haven, West Haven

来源：

Atlantic Economic Journal | 2014年 / 42卷 / 4期

关键词：

Elections polling; Granger causality; InTrade; Prediction markets; Voter preferences;

D O I：

10.1007/s11293-014-9430-6

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

This study tests for direct causality between RealClearPolitics (RCP) polling averages and InTrade (IT) share-prices by performing Granger causality tests. These tests are applied to the 2012 U.S. presidential election campaign between Barack Obama and Mitt Romney. Three time series are considered in this analysis of causal links between RCP and IT. In all of the estimations, the null hypothesis that IT does not Granger cause RCP cannot be rejected. On the other hand, the null hypothesis that RCP does not Granger cause IT is rejected in a majority of cases. Overall, these results imply that RCP Granger causes IT. While the behavior of participants in prediction markets such as InTrade is informed by political polling, these Granger causality test results suggest that prediction markets add little to what is forecasted by the polls, particularly aggregation polls such as that from RealClearPolitics, regarding the outcome of presidential elections. © 2014, International Atlantic Economic Society.

引用

页码：357 / 366

页数：9

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