Simulation of land cover changes in urban area using CA-MARKOV model (case study: zone 2 in Tehran, Iran)

Land surface has already been exposed to impressive land use/cover changes, which is more evident in residential areas. Land cover changes play an important role in understanding the interactions between human activities and the environment. The aim of this research was to analyze and monitor land cover changes in zone 2 in Tehran, Iran over a time span of 30 years and predict the future trend of changes during the period of 2016–2032. Land cover maps for 1986, 2000 and 2016 via RS images obtained from Landsat TM, ETM +, respectively. In order to predict the future land cover in this zone for the next 16 years, the Markov CA model was used. Results of the classification of the images indicate a significant increase in the built lands against the reduction of open lands and green lands. The biggest changes that have occurred was an increase in the amount of built lands, from 1986 to 2016, the amount of built lands increased by 25.2%, green land decreased by 4.4%, and the open lands had decreased by 23.6%. These changes reflect the destruction of green lands and open lands as two important and ecological infrastructures. The results of this study can play a useful role in improving the land cover management strategies of the study area.