Comparative analysis of thermal performance models describing the effect of temperature on the preimaginal development of Drosophila suzukii

Drosophila suzukii is a major concern worldwide since its first detection in the Western world in 2008 because it is able to attack healthy ripening fruits producing high economic losses. The knowledge of its biological traits is fundamental to establish sustainable pest management strategies. One of the main factors determining population dynamics of arthropods is temperature. Therefore, modelling the response of the development of pests to this factor contributes to anticipate risk situations and to establish possible new areas of colonization. A mortality model and thirty-two developmental models were used to describe the relationship between the immature survival and developmental rate of D. suzukii versus temperature. The survival and developmental times of the immature stages were determined across a broad range of temperatures (10–31 °C). Then, the models were fitted and the predictions of the developmental models compared with the developmental times obtained under three regimes of fluctuating temperatures (4–16, 13–25 and 21–32 °C). Developmental models were applied to the complete range of temperatures studied at each regime, or they were truncated for the lower and upper regimes at the temperatures that produced 100% immature mortality estimated with the mortality model (8.7–30.9 °C). Better predictions were obtained with the non-truncated models, indicating that some development occurred under short exposures to temperatures beyond those producing 100% mortality during immature development. The Régnière, Lactin II, Hansen, Lobry–Rosso–Flandrois and Logan III models produced the lowest deviations and provided the most realistic lower and higher development thresholds.