UKIP support in local elections: which factors play a role in determining electoral fortunes?

This paper attempts to provide better understanding of which factors shaped UKIP electoral support in local elections using borough-level data from London, as well as individual-level survey data from respondents residing in London. Results from this study display rising crime, falling turnout, and falling Conservative party vote share led to rises in UKIP vote share. These findings show that while perceptions of immigration and the economy may affect voter choice for Eurosceptic, nationalist, and populist parties, actual change in migration and economic conditions had no effect on voter support for UKIP in local elections. Additionally, there is substantial evidence that rising rates of local crime, and perceptions of rising local crime rates, lead voters to seek out parties, such as UKIP, with a policy platform supporting strengthened criminal justice measures. Finally, UKIP support in local elections is shown to have drawn heavily from former Conservative voters, as opposed to disenchanted Labour supporters.