Statistical data analysis of the 1995 Ebola outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo

被引：42

作者：

Ndanguza D. ^{[1
]}

Tchuenche J.M. ^{[2
]}

Haario H. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Department of Applied Mathematics, Kigali Institute of Science and Technology, P.O. Box 3900, Kigali

[2] Mathematics Department, University of Dar es Salaam, Box 35062, Dar es Salaam

[3] Department of Mathematics and Physics, Lappeenranta University of Technology, P.O. Box 20

来源：

Afrika Matematika | 2013年 / 24卷 / 1期

关键词：

Analysis; Ebola; Estimates; Least squares; Posterior distribution; SEIR;

D O I：

10.1007/s13370-011-0039-5

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

Ebola is a lethal viral hemorrhagic fever with the potential to cause major epidemics. We analyse the 1995 outbreak in the Democratic Republic of Congo using two sets of data (onset and death data). Numerical simulations showed that the model fits the observed onset Ebola data at 99.95% and the observed death data at 98.6%. Since Bayesian inference cannot be performed analytically for complex models, Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm is then used as the second approach to obtain a solution. Results obtained from both approaches are contrasted and compared. © 2011 African Mathematical Union and Springer-Verlag.

引用

页码：55 / 68

页数：13

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