Groundwater pumping modeling for the sustainable management of urban water supply in Faisalabad city, Pakistan

Groundwater is considered as the primary source of urban water supply in major cities of the world. Rapid industrial development and increase in population have deteriorated the quality of groundwater of Faisalabad, Pakistan. The overexploitation of groundwater caused depletion of groundwater level, and evaluation of groundwater status has become critical for the sustainability of urban water supply. This paper’s main objective is to present the overexploitation effect on aquifer based on historical and existing groundwater situations, and future groundwater conditions are projected based on six different scenarios. The transient groundwater model was developed coupling Groundwater Vista with MODFLOW to simulate the impact of groundwater pumping on the Chenab River’s bed well field. Water table was calibrated and validated for 13 years (1992 to 2005) and 5 years (2006 to 2010), respectively, and model performance evaluation indicators, represented the model’s reliability for further application. Moreover, the steep gradient of the groundwater head contour was observed in the well-field’s southern area, and resultantly steady-state condition has been established. Future urban water supply conditions were projected by implementing six scenarios based on the groundwater pumping system’s existing capacity for 2030. With 90% pumping capacity, the system forecasted a decline in the water table from 0.6 to 1.3 m year−1, respectively. Groundwater recharge conditions evaluated and forecast results represented a drop of 0.45 m year−1 till 2030 during optimization. Factual and detailed information is projected for future scenarios based on existing developed models that explain groundwater pumping strategies for sustainable urban water supply management. © 2021, Saudi Society for Geosciences.