Does an Ageing Population Affect Crime Rates in the United States?

The United States is undergoing a demographic transition in which the proportion of individuals aged 65 years and above in total population is increasing. The age-crime relationship is a well-tested theory in criminology. A commonly accepted theory that has been unanimously supported by empirical evidence is that the propensity to commit crime decreases with age. But recent data from the FBI depicts an increase in crimes committed by the elderly. Notwithstanding the increasing trend in arrests among the elderly, we test the hypothesis that population ageing decreases total crime rates, violent crime rates, property crime rates, and their six sub-categories, namely, murder, rape, robbery, aggravated assault, larceny, and motor vehicle theft. We control for expenditures on police force (% of GDP), income inequality, national income, unemployment rate, poverty rate, and population density. The multiple break test, the bounds testing approach to cointegration analysis, and causality analysis are applied. The long-run results reject the hypothesis. Population ageing is found to increase crime rates in the United States. The results further indicate a positive correlation between population ageing and share of crimes committed by the elderly in total crimes in the United States.