The impact of targeted regulation of abortion providers laws on abortions and births

This paper analyzes the impact of supply-side abortion restrictions on aggregate abortion and birth rates in the USA. Specifically, I exploit state and time variation in the implementation of the first targeted regulation of abortion provider (TRAP) law in a state to identify the effects of the laws. I find that TRAP laws are associated with a reduction in the abortion rate of approximately 5% the year the first law is implemented, and an average reduction of 11–14% in subsequent years. There is also evidence that TRAP laws increased birth rates by 2–3%, which accounts for approximately 80–100% of the observed decline in abortion rates.